Current synoptic analysis indicates a persistent cool airmass influence over the Sichuan Basin. ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs for Chengdu on April 27 consistently cap the diurnal high at 24-25°C, notably below the 26°C trigger. Thermal advection remains insufficient to push temperatures higher. This robust sub-threshold projection offers a clear signal. 95% NO — invalid if a strong southerly frontal system unexpectedly develops post-00Z April 26.
Current synoptic analysis indicates a persistent cool airmass influence over the Sichuan Basin. ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs for Chengdu on April 27 consistently cap the diurnal high at 24-25°C, notably below the 26°C trigger. Thermal advection remains insufficient to push temperatures higher. This robust sub-threshold projection offers a clear signal. 95% NO — invalid if a strong southerly frontal system unexpectedly develops post-00Z April 26.
