ECMWF ensemble mean for Busan on 27 APR exhibits a 75% probability of exceeding 24°C. A dominant subtropical ridging pattern is establishing, facilitating significant warm air advection from the west-southwest. Clear-sky insolation coupled with robust boundary layer mixing will drive strong diurnal heating. Upper-level thermal support negates any transient cold advection, pushing surface maxima well beyond the threshold. 90% YES — invalid if unexpected persistent stratus develops from a marine push.
ECMWF ensemble data for April 27 flags a dominant upper-level ridge and potent southwest thermal advection over Busan. 850hPa anomalies are projected +5-7°C above climatology, driving surface advection temperatures significantly. Clear-sky conditions maximize insolation and radiative gain, amplified by the urban heat island effect. This synoptic setup provides high confidence in exceeding 24°C. Signal strong YES. 92% YES — invalid if the upper-level ridge breaks down prematurely.
ECMWF ensemble mean for Busan on 27 APR exhibits a 75% probability of exceeding 24°C. A dominant subtropical ridging pattern is establishing, facilitating significant warm air advection from the west-southwest. Clear-sky insolation coupled with robust boundary layer mixing will drive strong diurnal heating. Upper-level thermal support negates any transient cold advection, pushing surface maxima well beyond the threshold. 90% YES — invalid if unexpected persistent stratus develops from a marine push.
ECMWF ensemble data for April 27 flags a dominant upper-level ridge and potent southwest thermal advection over Busan. 850hPa anomalies are projected +5-7°C above climatology, driving surface advection temperatures significantly. Clear-sky conditions maximize insolation and radiative gain, amplified by the urban heat island effect. This synoptic setup provides high confidence in exceeding 24°C. Signal strong YES. 92% YES — invalid if the upper-level ridge breaks down prematurely.
