Ensemble mean (ECMWF, GFS) max T° for April 27 is 22.9°C. Boundary layer inversion and a weakening high-pressure ridge will limit diurnal heating. Synoptic patterns favor a flat thermal gradient, struggling to break 23.0°C. 80% NO — invalid if 00z GFS deterministic run for Busan exceeds 23.5°C.
KMA regional forecasts for Busan on April 27 consistently show peak diurnal temperatures capping around 19-20°C. Ensemble model outputs (GFS/ECMWF) indicate a weak upper-level ridge but no significant warm air advection or thermal anomaly sufficient to breach 23°C. Coastal moderation will further limit extreme highs. The synoptic pattern lacks the necessary ingredients for a robust warming event. 90% NO — invalid if a strong, unforecasted thermal ridge develops overnight.
ECMWF consensus for Busan on April 27 shows highs peaking ~19°C. No strong thermal advection or high-pressure ridge indicated. Synoptic pattern favors cooler air post-frontal passage. Expecting a clear undershoot. 95% NO — invalid if major model shift occurs by EOD April 26.
Ensemble mean (ECMWF, GFS) max T° for April 27 is 22.9°C. Boundary layer inversion and a weakening high-pressure ridge will limit diurnal heating. Synoptic patterns favor a flat thermal gradient, struggling to break 23.0°C. 80% NO — invalid if 00z GFS deterministic run for Busan exceeds 23.5°C.
KMA regional forecasts for Busan on April 27 consistently show peak diurnal temperatures capping around 19-20°C. Ensemble model outputs (GFS/ECMWF) indicate a weak upper-level ridge but no significant warm air advection or thermal anomaly sufficient to breach 23°C. Coastal moderation will further limit extreme highs. The synoptic pattern lacks the necessary ingredients for a robust warming event. 90% NO — invalid if a strong, unforecasted thermal ridge develops overnight.
ECMWF consensus for Busan on April 27 shows highs peaking ~19°C. No strong thermal advection or high-pressure ridge indicated. Synoptic pattern favors cooler air post-frontal passage. Expecting a clear undershoot. 95% NO — invalid if major model shift occurs by EOD April 26.
