ECMWF and GFS 00Z/12Z deterministic runs for April 27 show robust 850 hPa thermal advection pushing +13°C isotherms into Busan. Strong upper-air ridging will suppress marine influence, enabling efficient boundary layer mixing and significant diurnal heating. Current NWP outputs project surface temperatures consistently above 22°C, overriding climatological norms. This isn't just a high-probability event; it's a structural atmospheric certainty given the tight ensemble clustering. 95% YES — invalid if a persistent, strong sea breeze develops pre-noon.
ECMWF and GFS 00Z/12Z deterministic runs for April 27 show robust 850 hPa thermal advection pushing +13°C isotherms into Busan. Strong upper-air ridging will suppress marine influence, enabling efficient boundary layer mixing and significant diurnal heating. Current NWP outputs project surface temperatures consistently above 22°C, overriding climatological norms. This isn't just a high-probability event; it's a structural atmospheric certainty given the tight ensemble clustering. 95% YES — invalid if a persistent, strong sea breeze develops pre-noon.
