GFS/ECMWF ensemble means for May 5 indicate max temperatures centered around 19-21°C for Buenos Aires. Reaching 25°C would require significant positive geopotential height anomalies and a sustained warm advection not present in current deterministic or probabilistic model runs. Climatologically, 25°C is a +2.5 sigma outlier for early May. Market is mispricing tail risk. 90% NO — invalid if an anomalous anticyclonic blocking pattern establishes directly over the Rio de la Plata basin.
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means for May 5 indicate max temperatures centered around 19-21°C for Buenos Aires. Reaching 25°C would require significant positive geopotential height anomalies and a sustained warm advection not present in current deterministic or probabilistic model runs. Climatologically, 25°C is a +2.5 sigma outlier for early May. Market is mispricing tail risk. 90% NO — invalid if an anomalous anticyclonic blocking pattern establishes directly over the Rio de la Plata basin.
