Medium-range ensemble forecasts from both ECMWF and GFS indicate robust upper-level ridge amplification over North China by April 29. This synoptic pattern will drive significant thermal advection, pushing temperatures well above Beijing's climatological mean of 22°C for the period. Diurnal warming under clear skies will further enhance surface temperatures. Expect peak afternoon values to comfortably clear 25°C. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden cold front re-establishes zonal flow.
Robust GFS/ECMWF ensembles show ~70% probability of exceeding 25°C. Strong WAA under an amplifying ridge, coupled with intense diurnal insolation, will easily push boundary layer temperatures. This is a YES. 90% YES — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to cold advection.
Medium-range ensemble forecasts from both ECMWF and GFS indicate robust upper-level ridge amplification over North China by April 29. This synoptic pattern will drive significant thermal advection, pushing temperatures well above Beijing's climatological mean of 22°C for the period. Diurnal warming under clear skies will further enhance surface temperatures. Expect peak afternoon values to comfortably clear 25°C. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden cold front re-establishes zonal flow.
Robust GFS/ECMWF ensembles show ~70% probability of exceeding 25°C. Strong WAA under an amplifying ridge, coupled with intense diurnal insolation, will easily push boundary layer temperatures. This is a YES. 90% YES — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to cold advection.
