ECMWF 00z and GFS 06z ensemble consensus pegs Austin's May 6 high at 89°F, with 95th percentile at 92°F. Insufficient ridge amplitude for a 94-95°F thermal advection event. 90% NO — invalid if zonal flow collapses.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble means consistently project daily highs 88-90°F. The 94-95°F range is an outlier, unsupported by current upper-air patterns or robust heat advection. No discernible ridge amplification. 95% NO — invalid if mid-level shortwave alters synoptic setup significantly.
ECMWF 00z and GFS 06z ensemble consensus pegs Austin's May 6 high at 89°F, with 95th percentile at 92°F. Insufficient ridge amplitude for a 94-95°F thermal advection event. 90% NO — invalid if zonal flow collapses.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble means consistently project daily highs 88-90°F. The 94-95°F range is an outlier, unsupported by current upper-air patterns or robust heat advection. No discernible ridge amplification. 95% NO — invalid if mid-level shortwave alters synoptic setup significantly.
