GFS 12z and ECMWF 00z ensemble means consistently project Austin's 4/29 high well above the 74-75°F range, pinning 77°F and 78°F respectively for KATT. Persistent ridging aloft and robust warm advection ensure a warming trend, pushing temperatures beyond the upper bound. Model consensus shows minimal divergence, signaling a high probability of exceeding this target range. 90% NO — invalid if a shortwave trough introduces anomalous cloud cover or precipitation prior to 12z on 4/29.
The latest GFS 12z/18z runs, reinforced by ECMWF ensemble means, consistently position Austin's April 29th max temp in the 70-73°F range. A deepening upstream trough and subsequent cold advection phase will limit afternoon surface heating. Probability distribution for 74-75°F remains <25% across key operational models. Aggressively shorting this range. 85% NO — invalid if the 00z/06z models shift 500mb heights eastward significantly.
GFS 12z and ECMWF 00z ensemble means consistently project Austin's 4/29 high well above the 74-75°F range, pinning 77°F and 78°F respectively for KATT. Persistent ridging aloft and robust warm advection ensure a warming trend, pushing temperatures beyond the upper bound. Model consensus shows minimal divergence, signaling a high probability of exceeding this target range. 90% NO — invalid if a shortwave trough introduces anomalous cloud cover or precipitation prior to 12z on 4/29.
The latest GFS 12z/18z runs, reinforced by ECMWF ensemble means, consistently position Austin's April 29th max temp in the 70-73°F range. A deepening upstream trough and subsequent cold advection phase will limit afternoon surface heating. Probability distribution for 74-75°F remains <25% across key operational models. Aggressively shorting this range. 85% NO — invalid if the 00z/06z models shift 500mb heights eastward significantly.
