The 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are consistently signaling a deepening upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains by April 28, with 500mb heights pushing 590dm. This synoptic pattern favors robust thermal advection and strong subsidence, suppressing cloud development. While direct model outputs average 88-89°F, the dry airmass and intense insolation will drive localized superadiabatic lapse rates. Our internal bias models indicate a high likelihood of surface temperatures overshooting by 2-3°F. This is a strong long-term buy signal. 95% YES — invalid if a shortwave trough introduces significant cloud cover.
The 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are consistently signaling a deepening upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains by April 28, with 500mb heights pushing 590dm. This synoptic pattern favors robust thermal advection and strong subsidence, suppressing cloud development. While direct model outputs average 88-89°F, the dry airmass and intense insolation will drive localized superadiabatic lapse rates. Our internal bias models indicate a high likelihood of surface temperatures overshooting by 2-3°F. This is a strong long-term buy signal. 95% YES — invalid if a shortwave trough introduces significant cloud cover.
