Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance indicates a robust upper-level ridge dominating the regional synoptic pattern on April 28th. Surface analysis projects sustained southerly advection pushing warm, moist air into Austin, precluding significant diurnal cooling. This setup implies a high probability of temperatures easily breaching 73°F. The 50th percentile of model outputs consistently targets 78-82°F. 92% NO — invalid if a strong, unforecasted frontal passage occurs before 12 UTC on 4/28.
Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance indicates a robust upper-level ridge dominating the regional synoptic pattern on April 28th. Surface analysis projects sustained southerly advection pushing warm, moist air into Austin, precluding significant diurnal cooling. This setup implies a high probability of temperatures easily breaching 73°F. The 50th percentile of model outputs consistently targets 78-82°F. 92% NO — invalid if a strong, unforecasted frontal passage occurs before 12 UTC on 4/28.
