ECMWF 12z ensemble mean for KATT projects 82°F for April 27. The GFS 00z run, while its deterministic output shows 81°F, places its 75th percentile outcome at 83°F, indicating strong upper-end probability. Synoptic pattern analysis confirms high-pressure ridge development across Central Texas, driving warm advection. This tight convergence around the 82-83°F threshold within leading global models represents a strong 'yes' signal. 80% YES — invalid if a cold front pushes through or unexpected cloud cover persists.
ECMWF 12z ensemble mean for KATT projects 82°F for April 27. The GFS 00z run, while its deterministic output shows 81°F, places its 75th percentile outcome at 83°F, indicating strong upper-end probability. Synoptic pattern analysis confirms high-pressure ridge development across Central Texas, driving warm advection. This tight convergence around the 82-83°F threshold within leading global models represents a strong 'yes' signal. 80% YES — invalid if a cold front pushes through or unexpected cloud cover persists.
