Current NWS model consensus indicates an upper-level trough influencing the Southeast, limiting extreme thermal advection. GFS/ECMWF ensemble means project a high of 82-84°F for KATL on April 28, consistently 4-6°F below the 88°F floor. Despite localized diurnal heating, the large-scale synoptic pattern unequivocally precludes an 88-89°F event. This is a clear miss. 95% NO — invalid if a significant westward shift in the trough axis occurs post-00Z GFS run.
Current NWS model consensus indicates an upper-level trough influencing the Southeast, limiting extreme thermal advection. GFS/ECMWF ensemble means project a high of 82-84°F for KATL on April 28, consistently 4-6°F below the 88°F floor. Despite localized diurnal heating, the large-scale synoptic pattern unequivocally precludes an 88-89°F event. This is a clear miss. 95% NO — invalid if a significant westward shift in the trough axis occurs post-00Z GFS run.
