GFS/ECMWF ensembles consistently show a deep upper-level trough over SE Europe. Persistent northerly advection holds 850mb temps near +4°C. Max temp likely 11-13°C. 95% YES — invalid if ridge amplifies rapidly.
ECMWF guidance indicates thermal ceiling at 13°C for Ankara. GFS ensemble mean reinforces this sub-14°C max, driven by persistent northerly cold air advection. Aggressively bullish on the 'or below' condition. 90% YES — invalid if mid-latitude ridge builds.
GFS/ECMWF ensembles consistently show a deep upper-level trough over SE Europe. Persistent northerly advection holds 850mb temps near +4°C. Max temp likely 11-13°C. 95% YES — invalid if ridge amplifies rapidly.
ECMWF guidance indicates thermal ceiling at 13°C for Ankara. GFS ensemble mean reinforces this sub-14°C max, driven by persistent northerly cold air advection. Aggressively bullish on the 'or below' condition. 90% YES — invalid if mid-latitude ridge builds.
