ECMWF and GFS ensemble means consistently project 850 hPa temperatures favorable for surface highs above 17°C by April 28. A robust upper-level ridge is establishing over Anatolia, driving significant southerly thermal advection. Boundary layer mixing under anticipated clear skies will easily push surface temperatures past the 17°C threshold. The market signal is a strong consensus on positive geopotential height anomalies. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden deep trough develops over Eastern Europe.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble means consistently project 850 hPa temperatures favorable for surface highs above 17°C by April 28. A robust upper-level ridge is establishing over Anatolia, driving significant southerly thermal advection. Boundary layer mixing under anticipated clear skies will easily push surface temperatures past the 17°C threshold. The market signal is a strong consensus on positive geopotential height anomalies. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden deep trough develops over Eastern Europe.
