ECMWF 00z operational for April 29 projects a pronounced 500hPa geopotential height anomaly, signaling robust ridging over continental Europe and Benelux. This synoptic setup favors sustained southerly thermal advection. 850hPa temps are consistently modeled above +10°C, translating to surface maxima well exceeding 19°C under clear skies and ample insolation. GFS ensemble mean reinforces this positive thermal anomaly. 85% YES — invalid if a persistent Atlantic trough dominates by D-3.
ECMWF 00z operational for April 29 projects a pronounced 500hPa geopotential height anomaly, signaling robust ridging over continental Europe and Benelux. This synoptic setup favors sustained southerly thermal advection. 850hPa temps are consistently modeled above +10°C, translating to surface maxima well exceeding 19°C under clear skies and ample insolation. GFS ensemble mean reinforces this positive thermal anomaly. 85% YES — invalid if a persistent Atlantic trough dominates by D-3.
