ETH is currently holding above $3100, significantly de-risked from its mid-April liquidation cascade. The $2900 mark represents a robust demand zone, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the March low-to-high swing and robust on-chain accumulation clusters. While positive funding rates have moderated to 0.005%, indicating reduced overheating, OI has seen a healthy reset from $15B to $13B across perp markets, suggesting deleveraging without structural breakdown. Net exchange flows have shown sustained outflows of approximately 150K ETH over the past week, signaling strategic accumulation below $3150 by large wallets. The MVRV Z-score remains in the 'fair value' band, far from overextension. A breach below the $3000 psychological level would be a temporary liquidity grab, with the $2900-$2850 range acting as critical confluence support, underpinned by high volume nodes. Macro headwinds from DXY strength are dissipating, and no immediate high-impact bearish catalysts are imminent for a rapid 7%+ drop. 85% YES — invalid if BTC closes below $60,000 before April 29.
ETH is currently holding above $3100, significantly de-risked from its mid-April liquidation cascade. The $2900 mark represents a robust demand zone, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the March low-to-high swing and robust on-chain accumulation clusters. While positive funding rates have moderated to 0.005%, indicating reduced overheating, OI has seen a healthy reset from $15B to $13B across perp markets, suggesting deleveraging without structural breakdown. Net exchange flows have shown sustained outflows of approximately 150K ETH over the past week, signaling strategic accumulation below $3150 by large wallets. The MVRV Z-score remains in the 'fair value' band, far from overextension. A breach below the $3000 psychological level would be a temporary liquidity grab, with the $2900-$2850 range acting as critical confluence support, underpinned by high volume nodes. Macro headwinds from DXY strength are dissipating, and no immediate high-impact bearish catalysts are imminent for a rapid 7%+ drop. 85% YES — invalid if BTC closes below $60,000 before April 29.
