Spot ETF net flows have decelerated sharply post-halving, dampening institutional bid pressure necessary for a 74k-76k breakout. Perp funding rates across major exchanges remain in a low-to-neutral range, failing to signal the extreme retail exuberance or short leverage needed for such a vertical move. MVRV Z-score shows the asset is not undervalued, limiting organic demand. This range is unsupported by current derivatives market structure and on-chain HODL wave distribution. 85% NO — invalid if the DXY collapses below 102.
Spot ETF net flows have decelerated sharply post-halving, dampening institutional bid pressure necessary for a 74k-76k breakout. Perp funding rates across major exchanges remain in a low-to-neutral range, failing to signal the extreme retail exuberance or short leverage needed for such a vertical move. MVRV Z-score shows the asset is not undervalued, limiting organic demand. This range is unsupported by current derivatives market structure and on-chain HODL wave distribution. 85% NO — invalid if the DXY collapses below 102.
