Post-halving miner capitulation events historically induce short-term price pressure. Coupled with elevated STH Realized Profit/Loss ratios, selling velocity will likely outweigh immediate bid liquidity, pushing price action outside the 68-70k band. Expecting a re-accumulation below 65k before any significant upside continuation. 85% NO — invalid if daily ETF net inflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
Spot ETF net outflows hitting $500M last week, with open interest flattening. Whales are offloading. Distribution phase confirmed; range holds below 68K. 90% NO — invalid if daily ETF inflows exceed $200M.
Post-halving miner capitulation events historically induce short-term price pressure. Coupled with elevated STH Realized Profit/Loss ratios, selling velocity will likely outweigh immediate bid liquidity, pushing price action outside the 68-70k band. Expecting a re-accumulation below 65k before any significant upside continuation. 85% NO — invalid if daily ETF net inflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
Spot ETF net outflows hitting $500M last week, with open interest flattening. Whales are offloading. Distribution phase confirmed; range holds below 68K. 90% NO — invalid if daily ETF inflows exceed $200M.
