On-chain signals demonstrate robust demand. Exchange netflow continues net negative by ~5k BTC weekly, tightening spot supply. Derivs perpetual funding rates remain firmly positive across major exchanges, indicating leveraged longs are paying to maintain positions with conviction. Spot ETF inflows, averaging $200M+ daily post-consolidation, will fuel the next leg up. The halving narrative, combined with this supply squeeze, creates a clear path to retest the $78k liquidity zone within 3 weeks. 75% YES — invalid if ETF net outflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
On-chain signals demonstrate robust demand. Exchange netflow continues net negative by ~5k BTC weekly, tightening spot supply. Derivs perpetual funding rates remain firmly positive across major exchanges, indicating leveraged longs are paying to maintain positions with conviction. Spot ETF inflows, averaging $200M+ daily post-consolidation, will fuel the next leg up. The halving narrative, combined with this supply squeeze, creates a clear path to retest the $78k liquidity zone within 3 weeks. 75% YES — invalid if ETF net outflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
