Immediate post-halving price action consistently shows consolidation, not explosive upward impulse. While long-term bullish, ETF inflows have stabilized, falling below the average required to sustain a rapid break past the $73k ATH resistance. Derivatives funding rates, while positive, lack the extreme leverage needed for a swift push to $76,000 by May 1. Expecting range-bound trading with re-accumulation, not a breakout. 85% NO — invalid if daily ETF net inflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
Immediate post-halving price action consistently shows consolidation, not explosive upward impulse. While long-term bullish, ETF inflows have stabilized, falling below the average required to sustain a rapid break past the $73k ATH resistance. Derivatives funding rates, while positive, lack the extreme leverage needed for a swift push to $76,000 by May 1. Expecting range-bound trading with re-accumulation, not a breakout. 85% NO — invalid if daily ETF net inflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
