Spot ETF net flows have decelerated to near zero post-halving, indicating a critical lack of institutional bid-side pressure to drive new ATHs. Perpetual funding rates are flat, removing leverage-driven upside impetus. On-chain MVRV ratio shows neither capitulation nor extreme overextension, suggesting protracted range-bound action. A ~14% surge to $74K by May 2nd from current levels against strong macro headwinds and prior ATH resistance is highly improbable. 90% NO — invalid if daily Spot ETF net inflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
Spot ETF net flows have decelerated to near zero post-halving, indicating a critical lack of institutional bid-side pressure to drive new ATHs. Perpetual funding rates are flat, removing leverage-driven upside impetus. On-chain MVRV ratio shows neither capitulation nor extreme overextension, suggesting protracted range-bound action. A ~14% surge to $74K by May 2nd from current levels against strong macro headwinds and prior ATH resistance is highly improbable. 90% NO — invalid if daily Spot ETF net inflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
