Aggressive long. The halving event on April 20 introduces an immediate emission shock, halving new BTC supply to ~450 daily. Coupled with resilient institutional demand, evidenced by the consistent, albeit fluctuating, spot ETF net inflows, this supply-demand imbalance provides immense bullish pressure. On-chain metrics show LTHs are still in accumulation, with SOPR resetting from recent profit-taking, suggesting a healthy consolidation. Derivatives funding rates are positive but not overheated, allowing ample room for sustained long build-up. A decisive breach of the prior $73.8K ATH will likely trigger cascading short liquidations and unleash significant capital on the sidelines seeking price discovery. The $74K options strike also presents a magnetic draw. [90]% YES — invalid if cumulative spot ETF net outflows exceed $500M between April 20-26.
Aggressive long. The halving event on April 20 introduces an immediate emission shock, halving new BTC supply to ~450 daily. Coupled with resilient institutional demand, evidenced by the consistent, albeit fluctuating, spot ETF net inflows, this supply-demand imbalance provides immense bullish pressure. On-chain metrics show LTHs are still in accumulation, with SOPR resetting from recent profit-taking, suggesting a healthy consolidation. Derivatives funding rates are positive but not overheated, allowing ample room for sustained long build-up. A decisive breach of the prior $73.8K ATH will likely trigger cascading short liquidations and unleash significant capital on the sidelines seeking price discovery. The $74K options strike also presents a magnetic draw. [90]% YES — invalid if cumulative spot ETF net outflows exceed $500M between April 20-26.
