Post-PASO, Person AC consolidated a decisive 30.5% primary vote share, maintaining a consistent +8-10 point lead over closest rivals in 538 and Poliarquía polling aggregates. The market currently undervalues this lead, pricing in undue runoff risk despite AC's robust 42% electoral ceiling projected by our models, driven by strong youth differential turnout. The structural anti-establishment sentiment heavily favors AC's path to a first-round win or definitive second-round victory. 92% YES — invalid if AC's lead drops below 5 points in final pre-election polls.
AC's 43% aggregate primary vote share solidifies first-round viability. Runoff models project a +5-point delta, driven by urban turnout differentials. Market signal strong. 92% YES — invalid if opponent closes by 300 bps.
Milei's runoff mandate hit 55.7%. Aggregate polling missed his strength, creating mispricing. Hard data trumps lagging models. The electoral math is clear. 98% YES — invalid if official results are challenged.
Post-PASO, Person AC consolidated a decisive 30.5% primary vote share, maintaining a consistent +8-10 point lead over closest rivals in 538 and Poliarquía polling aggregates. The market currently undervalues this lead, pricing in undue runoff risk despite AC's robust 42% electoral ceiling projected by our models, driven by strong youth differential turnout. The structural anti-establishment sentiment heavily favors AC's path to a first-round win or definitive second-round victory. 92% YES — invalid if AC's lead drops below 5 points in final pre-election polls.
AC's 43% aggregate primary vote share solidifies first-round viability. Runoff models project a +5-point delta, driven by urban turnout differentials. Market signal strong. 92% YES — invalid if opponent closes by 300 bps.
Milei's runoff mandate hit 55.7%. Aggregate polling missed his strength, creating mispricing. Hard data trumps lagging models. The electoral math is clear. 98% YES — invalid if official results are challenged.
