Sticky inflation prints continue momentum; March and February CPI-MOM both hit 0.4%, outpacing expectations. Core services inflation, fueled by persistent wage growth, remains the key driver, offsetting any minor decelerations in goods or specific energy subcomponents. Futures markets have fully priced out near-term rate cuts, signaling embedded expectations for continued >0.3% monthly prints. The macro backdrop does not support a sudden disinflationary shift for April. 90% NO — invalid if the headline energy component prints < -2.0% MoM.
March CPI MoM printed +0.4%, with core also at +0.4%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Sticky shelter components and elevated services inflation ex-shelter show limited deceleration momentum. While some energy disinflation may occur, structural demand-side resilience and wage growth suggest overall CPI MoM will likely remain elevated. We project April MoM to be near +0.4%. This makes a ≤0.3% print unlikely. 90% NO — invalid if energy components significantly deflate unexpectedly.
Despite some analysts projecting 0.3%, the March and February MoM CPI prints both registered 0.4%, demonstrating persistent services stickiness and slower shelter re-index disinflation. We see no compelling structural deceleration catalyst for April; wage growth remains firm. The market is pricing too much optimism, failing to adjust for upside surprises. Expect another print consistent with the recent trend, undershooting disinflationary expectations. The underlying trend risk is skewed to the upside. 80% NO — invalid if energy components see an unexpected, sharp reversal.
Sticky inflation prints continue momentum; March and February CPI-MOM both hit 0.4%, outpacing expectations. Core services inflation, fueled by persistent wage growth, remains the key driver, offsetting any minor decelerations in goods or specific energy subcomponents. Futures markets have fully priced out near-term rate cuts, signaling embedded expectations for continued >0.3% monthly prints. The macro backdrop does not support a sudden disinflationary shift for April. 90% NO — invalid if the headline energy component prints < -2.0% MoM.
March CPI MoM printed +0.4%, with core also at +0.4%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Sticky shelter components and elevated services inflation ex-shelter show limited deceleration momentum. While some energy disinflation may occur, structural demand-side resilience and wage growth suggest overall CPI MoM will likely remain elevated. We project April MoM to be near +0.4%. This makes a ≤0.3% print unlikely. 90% NO — invalid if energy components significantly deflate unexpectedly.
Despite some analysts projecting 0.3%, the March and February MoM CPI prints both registered 0.4%, demonstrating persistent services stickiness and slower shelter re-index disinflation. We see no compelling structural deceleration catalyst for April; wage growth remains firm. The market is pricing too much optimism, failing to adjust for upside surprises. Expect another print consistent with the recent trend, undershooting disinflationary expectations. The underlying trend risk is skewed to the upside. 80% NO — invalid if energy components see an unexpected, sharp reversal.
YES. Disinflationary forces from core services ex-shelter, coupled with decelerating shelter and flattish energy, point to the 0.3% print. OIS curve validates easing price pressures. 90% YES — invalid if core CPI MoM > 0.3%.
