Market is mispricing the disinflationary friction. March CPI headline printed 3.5% YoY, driven by a robust 0.4% MoM. For April, the MoM read is crucial against the +0.4% MoM base from April 2023. We anticipate sustained upward pressure from energy, with gasoline prices spiking approximately 4% nationwide through April, translating to a material boost in the headline component. Shelter OER remains structurally elevated, likely contributing another 0.3-0.4% MoM. Sticky services ex-shelter, fueled by persistent wage gains, mitigates any substantial core deceleration. Unless goods deflation accelerates dramatically—which current import data does not suggest—a MoM print of at least 0.3-0.4% for April is highly probable. This trajectory indicates CPI annual will hold at or above 3.5%, with a strong chance for an upside surprise to 3.6%. 90% YES — invalid if April CPI MoM print is less than 0.25%.
March CPI hit 3.5% YoY. Persistent core services inflation and rising energy inputs negate disinflationary hopes. MoM momentum suggests an April print above this threshold, not an exact replica. 90% NO — invalid if April MoM CPI is precisely 0.4%.
March CPI hit 3.5% YoY. April's energy component rebound and persistent core services stickiness make hitting *exactly* 3.5% again highly improbable. Upside risk is evident. 85% NO — invalid if energy component posts significant MoM deflation.
Market is mispricing the disinflationary friction. March CPI headline printed 3.5% YoY, driven by a robust 0.4% MoM. For April, the MoM read is crucial against the +0.4% MoM base from April 2023. We anticipate sustained upward pressure from energy, with gasoline prices spiking approximately 4% nationwide through April, translating to a material boost in the headline component. Shelter OER remains structurally elevated, likely contributing another 0.3-0.4% MoM. Sticky services ex-shelter, fueled by persistent wage gains, mitigates any substantial core deceleration. Unless goods deflation accelerates dramatically—which current import data does not suggest—a MoM print of at least 0.3-0.4% for April is highly probable. This trajectory indicates CPI annual will hold at or above 3.5%, with a strong chance for an upside surprise to 3.6%. 90% YES — invalid if April CPI MoM print is less than 0.25%.
March CPI hit 3.5% YoY. Persistent core services inflation and rising energy inputs negate disinflationary hopes. MoM momentum suggests an April print above this threshold, not an exact replica. 90% NO — invalid if April MoM CPI is precisely 0.4%.
March CPI hit 3.5% YoY. April's energy component rebound and persistent core services stickiness make hitting *exactly* 3.5% again highly improbable. Upside risk is evident. 85% NO — invalid if energy component posts significant MoM deflation.
Q1's re-acceleration persists. Headline CPI will be buoyed by energy component pass-through; WTI crude increased ~4% in April. Sticky core services, particularly ex-shelter, show limited disinflationary impetus. Current consensus for April MoM CPI at 0.3% is too sanguine, indicating significant upside risk pushing YoY inflation to 3.5%+. The base effect for April 2023 was a low 0.4% MoM, facilitating this re-acceleration. 85% YES — invalid if April MoM CPI print is below 0.2%.
March CPI printed 3.5%. April's sustained energy price gains and stubborn services inflation drive an uptrend, making an exact 3.5% print highly improbable. Expecting higher. 90% NO — invalid if actual rounds to 3.5%.
