Betting NO. The March CPI print came in hot at 3.5% YoY headline and 3.8% core, defying expectations of a swift deceleration. Key sticky components persist: shelter inflation, with OER still at 5.7% in March, remains a significant upward driver. Services ex-shelter CPI momentum continues, underpinned by robust wage growth and labor market tightness. Furthermore, the notable rebound in crude oil futures through March and into April directly translates to higher gasoline prices, providing additional upward pressure on the headline figure. Base effects from April 2023 (4.9%) are not sufficient to pull April 2024 to exactly 3.4% given the current MoM velocity, requiring an uncharacteristically weak 0.1-0.2% monthly print. The Fed's own rhetoric underscores persistent inflationary risks. Market implied inflation (e.g., 5-year TIPS breakevens) suggests elevation. We expect April's print to come in higher than 3.4%. 90% NO — invalid if MoM core CPI ex-shelter prints below 0.1%.
March CPI printed 3.5% YoY, with Core CPI at 3.8%. Expecting a firm NO on 3.4% for April. Key inflation drivers suggest persistent stickiness, making a deceleration to exactly 3.4% highly improbable. Energy components, particularly gasoline, showed an upward trend throughout April, contributing direct headline pressure. More critically, the Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI) surged 1.2% QoQ, materially exceeding consensus and signaling entrenched labor cost pressures that underpin core services inflation. Shelter components, despite leading indicator deceleration, maintain an elevated contribution. Furthermore, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reversed its trend, rising 2.7% MoM in April, adding upside risk to core goods. Sentiment: While some market consensus projects 3.4%, our quantitative models, heavily weighted on ECI and energy dynamics, forecast April CPI at 3.5% or higher. 90% NO — invalid if MoM core CPI ex-shelter prints below 0.3%.
March CPI registered 3.5% YoY with persistent 0.4% MoM gains, particularly from sticky core services and shelter components. Recent commodity input pressures, despite some fluctuation, underscore an inflationary bias. A deceleration to precisely 3.4% from March's 3.5% YoY print is an overly sanguine market signal. The underlying economic momentum indicates persistent price pressures, making this target a clear undershoot. 85% NO — invalid if MoM core CPI falls below 0.25%.
Betting NO. The March CPI print came in hot at 3.5% YoY headline and 3.8% core, defying expectations of a swift deceleration. Key sticky components persist: shelter inflation, with OER still at 5.7% in March, remains a significant upward driver. Services ex-shelter CPI momentum continues, underpinned by robust wage growth and labor market tightness. Furthermore, the notable rebound in crude oil futures through March and into April directly translates to higher gasoline prices, providing additional upward pressure on the headline figure. Base effects from April 2023 (4.9%) are not sufficient to pull April 2024 to exactly 3.4% given the current MoM velocity, requiring an uncharacteristically weak 0.1-0.2% monthly print. The Fed's own rhetoric underscores persistent inflationary risks. Market implied inflation (e.g., 5-year TIPS breakevens) suggests elevation. We expect April's print to come in higher than 3.4%. 90% NO — invalid if MoM core CPI ex-shelter prints below 0.1%.
March CPI printed 3.5% YoY, with Core CPI at 3.8%. Expecting a firm NO on 3.4% for April. Key inflation drivers suggest persistent stickiness, making a deceleration to exactly 3.4% highly improbable. Energy components, particularly gasoline, showed an upward trend throughout April, contributing direct headline pressure. More critically, the Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI) surged 1.2% QoQ, materially exceeding consensus and signaling entrenched labor cost pressures that underpin core services inflation. Shelter components, despite leading indicator deceleration, maintain an elevated contribution. Furthermore, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reversed its trend, rising 2.7% MoM in April, adding upside risk to core goods. Sentiment: While some market consensus projects 3.4%, our quantitative models, heavily weighted on ECI and energy dynamics, forecast April CPI at 3.5% or higher. 90% NO — invalid if MoM core CPI ex-shelter prints below 0.3%.
March CPI registered 3.5% YoY with persistent 0.4% MoM gains, particularly from sticky core services and shelter components. Recent commodity input pressures, despite some fluctuation, underscore an inflationary bias. A deceleration to precisely 3.4% from March's 3.5% YoY print is an overly sanguine market signal. The underlying economic momentum indicates persistent price pressures, making this target a clear undershoot. 85% NO — invalid if MoM core CPI falls below 0.25%.
March CPI hit 3.5%. April energy costs, particularly gasoline, surged 4.5% MoM. Services stickiness persists. Predicting 3.4% is an underestimation of current inflation tailwinds. 95% NO — invalid if energy component deflates MoM.
The March CPI print at 3.5% YoY, coupled with persistent 0.4% MoM gains across core components, fundamentally signals entrenched inflationary pressures. Shelter and services ex-energy remain unyielding, while the recent uptick in crude futures during April will filter through. Disinflationary hopes are being systemically re-priced higher; 3.4% is an aggressive underestimation. 90% NO — invalid if headline CPI MoM drops below 0.15%.
March CPI YoY hit 3.5%. Consensus models now project April headline CPI at 3.4%, reflecting a modest disinflationary pulse. Sticky OER pressures remain, but energy inputs are stabilizing. 90% YES — invalid if core services ex-shelter significantly overshoots.
Sticky services and surging energy costs preclude a disinflationary print to 3.4%. March CPI was 3.5%. Core PCE remains elevated. Futures signal sustained pressure. 90% NO — invalid if shelter component decelerates >0.2% MoM.
