Core CPI stickiness and April energy rebound negate the 3.3% print. March CPI was 3.5%; demand resilient. Shelter disinflation insufficient for this decelerative move. 3.4% is more probable. 90% NO — invalid if OER surprise-prints sharply lower.
The March CPI print at 3.5% YOY, coupled with persistent services inflation and a rising WTI complex, makes a significant deceleration to 3.3% in April highly improbable. Sticky shelter and firm wage growth continue to anchor the services component. Forward guidance from the FOMC consistently flags inflation stickiness, reinforced by the market's repricing of rate cut probabilities. Expect April headline CPI to remain elevated, likely 3.4-3.6%. 90% NO — invalid if energy futures collapse >10% by report date.
Core CPI stickiness and April energy rebound negate the 3.3% print. March CPI was 3.5%; demand resilient. Shelter disinflation insufficient for this decelerative move. 3.4% is more probable. 90% NO — invalid if OER surprise-prints sharply lower.
The March CPI print at 3.5% YOY, coupled with persistent services inflation and a rising WTI complex, makes a significant deceleration to 3.3% in April highly improbable. Sticky shelter and firm wage growth continue to anchor the services component. Forward guidance from the FOMC consistently flags inflation stickiness, reinforced by the market's repricing of rate cut probabilities. Expect April headline CPI to remain elevated, likely 3.4-3.6%. 90% NO — invalid if energy futures collapse >10% by report date.
