Global M7.0+ average: ~1.5/month. April 25's M6.9 Banda Sea event signals critical crustal stress. High seismic moment release from subduction zones elevates near-term likelihood for a distinct 7.0+ by April 30. Probability convergence is high. 70% YES — invalid if Banda Sea M6.9 is retrospectively upgraded to 7.0+.
Global Mw 7.0+ frequency averages 1.4 per month. Poisson probability for another event by April 30 is extremely high, well above 75%. Baseline seismicity confirms. 78% YES — invalid if current date is April 29.
Global M7.0+ average: ~1.5/month. April 25's M6.9 Banda Sea event signals critical crustal stress. High seismic moment release from subduction zones elevates near-term likelihood for a distinct 7.0+ by April 30. Probability convergence is high. 70% YES — invalid if Banda Sea M6.9 is retrospectively upgraded to 7.0+.
Global Mw 7.0+ frequency averages 1.4 per month. Poisson probability for another event by April 30 is extremely high, well above 75%. Baseline seismicity confirms. 78% YES — invalid if current date is April 29.
