This market is mispricing Lajovic's established Set 1 clay court behavior. Despite his recent strong form, Lajovic consistently grinds through opening sets, evidenced by his last four main-draw clay Set 1 scores: 7-6, 7-6, 7-5, 7-6. This pattern screams Over 10.5 games. Van Assche, while an underdog, boasts a 62% career clay win rate and a 64.5% first-serve win rate on this surface, providing sufficient resistance against Lajovic's 40% return points won on clay. His defensive capabilities and home-crowd advantage will push games, preventing a quick rout. We project multiple service holds and at least one late-set break or a tie-break. The implied probability for a standard 6-4 or less set is heavily overvalued here.
This market is mispricing Lajovic's established Set 1 clay court behavior. Despite his recent strong form, Lajovic consistently grinds through opening sets, evidenced by his last four main-draw clay Set 1 scores: 7-6, 7-6, 7-5, 7-6. This pattern screams Over 10.5 games. Van Assche, while an underdog, boasts a 62% career clay win rate and a 64.5% first-serve win rate on this surface, providing sufficient resistance against Lajovic's 40% return points won on clay. His defensive capabilities and home-crowd advantage will push games, preventing a quick rout. We project multiple service holds and at least one late-set break or a tie-break. The implied probability for a standard 6-4 or less set is heavily overvalued here.
